TLDR
- Citigroup lowered its Macau August GGR forecast to MOP23 billion, or $2.86 billion
- The new forecast implies 4% growth over August 2025, down from an earlier 6% estimate
- The daily GGR run rate eased slightly during the week of Aug 10 to 16
- VIP gaming volume rose, but a lower hold rate softened overall revenue
- Concerts scheduled later in August could help support gaming activity
Citigroup has lowered its forecast for Macau’s gross gaming revenue in August. The bank now expects MOP23 billion, or $2.86 billion, for the month.
That figure is slightly higher than an earlier company estimate of MOP23.5 billion, or $2.92 billion. The change came after a slowdown during the second week of August.
The new forecast points to 4% growth compared with August 2025. Citigroup had previously projected 6% growth for the month.
Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau based the update on gaming activity from the first 16 days of August.
Weekly Revenue Slows Slightly
Macau’s GGR reached about MOP11.65 billion, or $1.45 billion, during the first 16 days of the month. The estimate came from industry sources cited by Citigroup.
The average daily run rate was about MOP721 million, or $89.6 million, during the week of Aug 10 to 16. That was below the MOP733 million, or $91.1 million, seen during the first nine days of August.
Even with the weekly dip, the daily run rate stayed above the MOP715 million, or $88.9 million, average from August 2025. Gaming activity is still running ahead of last year’s pace.
Citigroup said VIP gaming volume rose between 12% and 15% compared with the previous month. Mass market GGR increased by about 9% to 10%.
The VIP hold rate was lower during the second week than during the first nine days of August. Citigroup said this lower hold rate contributed to the softer daily run rate.
Gaming volume increased in both the VIP and mass market segments. The change in hold rate affected how much revenue that volume produced.
Entertainment Schedule May Lift Activity
Citigroup expects Macau’s concert schedule to support gaming revenue for the rest of August. Several shows are set to take place in the city.
Chinese singer Lay Zhang is scheduled to perform at The Venetian Arena. K-pop group i-dle will appear at Galaxy Arena.
FNC Band Kingdom 2026 is set to perform at The Londoner Arena. Citigroup factored these events into its updated forecast.
The bank expects an average daily GGR of about MOP757 million, or $94.1 million, for the remaining 15 days of August. That level is higher than the MOP721 million run rate from the week of Aug 10 to 16.
Reaching that daily average would allow Macau to hit Citigroup’s revised monthly total. The bank expects stronger daily performance during the second half of the month.
Macau’s August GGR is still running ahead of last year, even after the forecast cut. The final total will depend on VIP hold, mass market performance and the entertainment lineup.
Citigroup said it will keep tracking the daily run rate as August continues. The bank will also watch how the scheduled concerts affect visitor numbers and spending.
