TLDR
- DraftKings launched DKeX, a new market-making unit for its prediction markets business
- The exchange launched alongside the World Cup knockout stage, ahead of the NFL season
- CEO Jason Robins believes DraftKings can become one of the top three market makers in the space
- DraftKings shares rose 11% to about $27.59 after the announcement
- Analysts estimate 2026 losses from the prediction market push could reach $550 million
DraftKings has rolled out a new exchange called DKeX. The launch adds a market-making division to the company’s prediction markets business.
The timing lines up with the World Cup knockout stage. It also comes months before the NFL season begins.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said the company has the tools to become a top player in prediction markets. He pointed to the company’s data science and pricing teams as an advantage.
Robins said DraftKings’ prediction market has already topped $3 billion in annualized consumer volume. He also said the new exchange will connect with the company’s recently launched all-in-one app.
“DKeX provides a vertically integrated foundation for DraftKings Predictions,” Robins said in a statement. He added that it gives the company more control over its own technology.
How the Fee Structure Works
Market makers place orders that sit on an order book instead of executing right away. Market takers place orders that fill immediately against those resting orders.
DraftKings will charge takers between $0.005 and $0.01 per contract. The exact fee depends on the contract’s price.
Contracts priced between $0.20 and $0.96 cost $0.02 per contract for takers. Contracts outside that range cost less. Makers pay a flat fee of $0.0025 per contract.
This setup is close to the model used by Kalshi. Kalshi uses a formula that makes limit orders roughly four times cheaper than market orders.
Until now, DraftKings had partnered with CME Group and Crypto.com for exchange access. Those deals meant DraftKings did not collect trading fees itself. DKeX changes that.
Investment Costs and Stock Reaction
DraftKings has warned that its prediction market push could produce losses of up to $300 million this year. Some analysts think that number is too low.
Bank of America estimates the losses could reach $550 million, according to Bloomberg. That is nearly double DraftKings’ own upper estimate.
Citizens analyst Jordan Bender wrote that market making carries gross margins near 95%. He estimates DraftKings could generate $243 million in market-making revenue by 2027.
DraftKings shares jumped 11% following the announcement, reaching about $27.59. The stock remains well below its 2025 peak, when it traded in the low $50s after the Super Bowl.
Prediction markets have drawn large amounts of capital this year. Kalshi is reportedly seeking a new funding round that would value the company at $40 billion.
That would be nearly double the $22 billion valuation Kalshi received earlier this year. Kalshi’s valuation had already doubled once before, in 2025.
A Bernstein note published Monday said DraftKings’ new exchange has set the stage for more merger and acquisition activity across sportsbooks and prediction market exchanges.
