TLDR
- Kalshi parlay takers have lost $1.004 billion since the feature launched in September 2025.
- That total includes $608.9 million in losses before fees and $400 million in fees.
- Market makers have earned $519.8 million on parlays after fees.
- Almost half of all taker losses came in the eight weeks since the 2026 NFL season began.
- Sunday set a new taker-side volume record of $1.04 billion.
Kalshi parlay takers have lost more than $1 billion since the feature launched in September 2025, according to an analysis by InGame. The milestone came after a busy weekend of football trading on the prediction market.
Since launch, total volume on multi-leg trades has reached $165.6 billion. Taker stakes, the closest match to sportsbook handle, stand at $7.1 billion.
Takers lost more than $17 million across Saturday, Oct. 31, and Sunday, Nov. 1, after staking close to $200 million. Both days were better than normal for takers, but the losses still pushed the total past $1 billion.
How the $1 Billion Adds Up
Before fees, parlay takers have lost $608.9 million. They paid another $400 million in fees, bringing total losses to $1.004 billion.
Cash-outs added to the total. Takers lost an extra $141.8 million on cash-out trades, and losses would be just short of $862 million if every position had been held to settlement.
Market makers took the other side and made $608.9 million before fees. Parlay market making is not available on the Kalshi app or website, so makers are mostly professional or institutional traders.
Kalshi did not charge parlay maker fees until Aug. 20. Since then, it has collected $88.9 million in those fees, leaving market makers with $519.8 million in profit after fees.
Takers lost $579.5 million on non-correlated parlays, which include most multi-game bets. They lost $424.6 million on correlated parlays, which include same-game parlays.
The longest odds produced the worst results. Users staked $15.7 million on parlays priced under 0.1% and lost $13.3 million of it.
InGame said takers on Polymarket US and DKeX, the next two largest exchanges for parlay volume, have lost a higher share of their stakes. Traditional sportsbooks often win up to 20% on parlays, compared with about 10% on other bets.
Football Season Drives Growth
Almost half of all parlay taker losses came in the eight weeks since the 2026 NFL season began. Earlier uptake was low, and losses did not top $20 million until January 2026 or reach $100 million until April 2026.
Daily results have become steadier as parlays with more legs grew popular. Single-day taker returns now usually range from 5% to 25% losses.
Winning days have become rare. Takers made a daily profit only once in the last 40 days, on Oct. 21, when a recommended 10-leg NBA point spread parlay hit after drawing 18,744 trades at average odds of 0.2%.
Kalshi added politics parlays last month ahead of the midterm election. In October, fully non-sports parlay volume was $356.9 million and mixed parlay volume was $259.6 million, about 1% of $57 billion in total parlay volume.
Across all trade types, Kalshi takers have lost $3.81 billion since the platform launched. That includes $1.52 billion in losses before fees and $2.3 billion in fees, with the last profitable day after fees on Oct. 11.
Weekend parlay volume fell from the prior week’s record. Volume reached $3.55 billion on Oct. 31, down from just under $4 billion on Oct. 24, and $3.38 billion on Sunday, ending a streak of eight record weekends in total volume.
Headline volume counts both sides of each trade, so long-odds parlays create large figures from small stakes. On Saturday, $2.39 billion of volume came from parlays with eight or more legs at odds of 2% or less, but takers staked only $5.5 million on them.
On a taker-only basis, the weekend was another record. Sunday set a new high of $1.04 billion, while taker stakes on parlays were nearly flat week over week.
