TLDR
- Lionel Messi posted a paid Instagram ad for Kalshi tied to its Argentina Football Association sponsorship
- The post got over 1.4 million likes and reached Messi’s 500M+ followers
- Kalshi reported a record $5.1 billion in trading volume in the World Cup’s opening week
- Minnesota has banned prediction markets outright; several other states are pushing back
- The CFTC is blocking state enforcement against Kalshi in Arizona, Minnesota, New York, Illinois, and Connecticut
Lionel Messi promoted prediction market platform Kalshi in a paid Instagram post, giving the company one of its biggest marketing moments yet during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The post went live on Sunday and featured Messi alongside Argentina teammates Nicolas Otamendi and Rodrigo De Paul. It promoted a Kalshi-branded giveaway and highlighted a market on whether Argentina will win the World Cup again. The implied probability shown was 8.9%.
The campaign followed Kalshi’s June 10 announcement that it had become an official sponsor of the Argentina Football Association for the duration of the 2026 World Cup.
Messi’s Instagram account has more than 500 million followers. The post collected over 1.4 million likes within days of going live.
What the AFA Deal Includes
The sponsorship gives Kalshi co-branded activations, joint social campaigns, and the right to use the AFA’s crest and branding in its marketing.
The deal also has a data component. Genius Sports, the AFA’s official data and streaming partner, will supply official match data to Kalshi for creating and settling sports-event contracts.
Kalshi will also take part in Genius Sports’ integrity information-sharing program. This gives sports leagues more visibility into related market activity.
Argentina begins its World Cup title defense on Tuesday, playing Algeria in Kansas City in Group J.
A Busy Run of Sports Deals
The Messi post is part of a wider push by Kalshi to sign high-profile athletes and sports personalities.
The company signed two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo in February and golfer Bryson DeChambeau in January.
Football manager José Mourinho also appeared in a Kalshi Instagram campaign earlier this month. That post got more than 137,000 likes.
Kalshi reported a record $5.1 billion in notional trading volume during the first week of the World Cup. That was the largest single week in the company’s history.
Macquarie has projected the 2026 World Cup could become the largest betting event in history, with over $50 billion expected to be wagered across all platforms.
Legal Pressure Remains
Despite the growth, prediction markets are facing pushback in several U.S. states.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz signed the country’s first outright ban on prediction markets in May. States including Arizona, New York, Illinois, and Connecticut have also challenged Kalshi’s legal standing.
The CFTC has moved to block state enforcement in those jurisdictions, and some observers expect the dispute to eventually reach the Supreme Court.
There is also regulatory pressure outside the U.S. In March, a Buenos Aires court ordered the blocking of rival platform Polymarket in Argentina, despite Kalshi’s new deal with the AFA.
