TLDR
- Mass market gaming made up 73% of Macau’s gross gaming revenue in 2025, according to the IMF.
- Macau casino GGR rose 9.1% in 2025, reaching about 85% of 2019 levels.
- GGR grew 6.9% in the first half of 2026, led by mass market players.
- The IMF forecasts real GDP growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027.
- Macau needs more investment to reach its goal of 60% non-gaming GDP by 2030.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects mass market gaming to remain the main source of casino revenue growth in Macau. The view comes from its latest consultation report on the city, published on Tuesday.
The report said Macau’s gaming industry changed during the pandemic. Mass market customers are now the largest contributor to revenue, while the VIP segment plays a smaller part.
According to the IMF, mass market gaming accounted for 73% of gross gaming revenue (GGR) at Macau casinos in 2025. Casino operators have adjusted to the post-pandemic period as junket operators came under new regulation.
Mass Market Leads Macau Gaming Recovery
Macau casino GGR rose 9.1% year-on-year in 2025. That brought revenue to around 85% of the level seen in 2019, before the pandemic.
The recovery continued into 2026. Casino GGR increased 6.9% in the first half of the year, with growth driven by the mass market segment.
The IMF described the shift as structural. It said mass market customers are taking a larger role in supporting revenue.
The VIP segment has shown some signs of improvement. However, the IMF expects its share of total GGR to stay limited over the medium term.
The fund pointed to tighter licensing rules, limits on credit, and stronger enforcement of anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing measures. These changes reduced demand from high-end gamblers.
The rules were designed to improve governance in the sector. They also aimed to strengthen protections against money laundering and terror financing.
Macau Economy Still Relies Heavily on Casinos
Despite gains in gaming and tourism, Macau’s real GDP remains about 10% below its pre-pandemic level. The IMF said this is partly linked to the structural changes in the gaming industry.
The IMF estimates that casinos make up between 40% and 45% of Macau’s GDP. Visitors from mainland China account for around 70% of all tourist arrivals.
The report said this concentration leaves the economy and public revenue exposed to outside shocks. It listed stronger competition in the gaming sector as a downside risk.
Other risks include a slowdown in mainland China, renewed trade conflicts, and financial market instability. The IMF also warned that a long downturn in the property market could weigh on activity.
The IMF forecasts real GDP growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. Both figures are below the 4.7% growth recorded in 2025.
Over the medium term, the fund expects annual growth to stay near 3%. Slower growth in mainland China is expected to affect both tourism and gaming.
Macau’s Third Five-Year Plan sets a goal of raising non-gaming activities to 60% of GDP by 2030. The IMF said the city will need more investment to reach that target.
The fund named skills, talent attraction, physical and digital infrastructure, and a better business environment as priorities. It said the non-gaming economy is still below its potential.
The IMF estimated Macau’s negative output gap at 1.6% in 2026. It expects the gap to narrow gradually and close by 2030.
