TLDR
- Minnesota Legislature passed SF 4760, a public safety bill that includes a ban on prediction markets
- Operators, facilitators, payment providers, and advertisers face felony charges under the new law
- The ban covers wagers on elections, sports, weather, public health crises, wars, and more
- The CFTC may sue Minnesota, as it has already sued five other states over prediction market jurisdiction
- The provisions take effect Aug. 1, 2026, if signed into law
Minnesota lawmakers have approved a sweeping public safety bill that includes a ban on prediction markets, making operators and facilitators subject to felony penalties.
The bill, SF 4760, passed the Senate 57-9 and the House 100-32 after a conference committee finalized compromise language last Friday.
The original version of the bill did not include prediction market language. The Senate had passed standalone legislation targeting prediction markets earlier in the session, and the House later folded those provisions into the omnibus bill.
When the amended bill returned to the Senate, lawmakers refused to concur with the changes. A conference committee was formed to resolve differences, and the final version kept the prediction market ban intact.
What the Minnesota Prediction Market Ban Covers
The legislation defines a prediction market as a system that lets consumers wager on the future outcome of events not determined by the parties to the contract.
The list of covered events is broad. It includes athletic events, esports, elections, government actions, legal proceedings, weather events, and public health crises.
It also covers wars, national emergencies, assassinations, mass casualty events, popular culture outcomes, and even wagers on whether a person will make a particular statement.
Under the law, a person commits a felony if they create, operate, or manage a prediction market platform as part of a business. Intentionally facilitating prediction market activity also qualifies as a felony.
The bill goes beyond platform operators. It targets the entire prediction market ecosystem, including companies that provide geolocation services, payment processing, money transfer, and event data verification.
Advertising and promoting prediction markets would also be criminalized under the legislation.
The bill modifies Minnesota gambling statutes to clarify that commodity and securities contracts remain exempt from gambling laws, except where the new prediction market section applies.
Regulators would also gain authority to issue cease-and-desist orders and seek injunctions against violators.
The provisions are set to take effect Aug. 1, 2026.
Potential Legal Battle With the CFTC
If signed into law, Minnesota could face a legal challenge from federal regulators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has already sued Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, and Wisconsin after those states took enforcement actions against prediction market operators.
The CFTC has argued that federal law gives it exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. Prediction market operators like Kalshi have also filed their own lawsuits against states attempting to block sports event contracts.
A report from Semafor last week indicated the CFTC is watching developments in Minnesota and may be considering a lawsuit.
Minnesota lawmakers were aware of the risk during debate. Senate Minority Leader Mark Johnson warned that a lawsuit was “almost a guarantee” given what has happened in other states.
Despite that warning, most lawmakers on both sides agreed that prediction markets operate in a legal gray area and that the loopholes needed to be closed.
Separately, the Minnesota Senate passed SF 4474, a bill targeting sweepstakes casinos. However, that bill has stalled in the House and appears unlikely to pass before the legislative session ends on May 18.
The prediction market ban now heads to the governor’s desk.
