TLDR
- Morgan Stanley says the Philippine land-based casino market will remain under pressure through 2026 due to falling visitor numbers from South Korea and China
- Philippine gross gaming revenue dropped 9.6% in 2025 to $2.97 billion
- Morgan Stanley’s Praveen Choudhary expressed doubt that MGM Osaka will open on schedule in 2030
- Wynn Al Marjan Island in the UAE was highlighted as a bright spot, though its opening may be delayed past spring 2027
- Asia’s overall gaming sector returned to pre-COVID levels by 2025, but recovery remains uneven across the region
Morgan Stanley is warning that the Philippine casino industry faces a tough road ahead, with weakness expected to last through the end of 2026.
Praveen Choudhary, the bank’s managing director and head of Asian gaming and lodging, said the market has lost much of the appeal it once had. Returns have dropped sharply compared to a few years ago.
Speaking at the first day of G2E Asia 2026 at the Venetian Macao, Choudhary pointed to falling tourist arrivals as the main problem. Visitors from South Korea and China, two of the Philippines’ biggest source markets, saw double-digit declines in the first quarter of 2026.
The Philippine government had eased visa rules for mainland Chinese tourists in an effort to boost traffic. But Choudhary said those measures have not been enough to offset the decline.
Online betting and broader global developments have also weighed on the country’s land-based casino operations. The combination of these factors has made it harder for operators to recover lost ground.
Choudhary said he does not expect conditions to improve anytime soon. He sees no reason to believe a turnaround is coming for the Philippine market in the near term.
Official data backs up his view. Gross gaming revenue from licensed land-based casinos in the Philippines fell 9.6% in 2025, dropping to PHP 182.50 billion, or roughly $2.97 billion.
Japan Casino Timeline Draws Skepticism
Choudhary also shared his views on Japan’s casino development plans. He expressed doubt that MGM Osaka, the country’s first legal casino, will be ready to open in 2030 as planned.
MGM Osaka Corp, a joint venture between MGM Resorts International, Orix Corp, and other local investors, is behind the project. Choudhary suggested that large-scale casino projects in Japan will take longer than many expect.
He pointed to a national cabinet decree from March 10 that set the bidding window for a second round of integrated resort applications from May to November 2027. He said people should not spend too much time on that timeline.
His comments reflected a cautious tone about the pace of Japan’s gaming expansion beyond the current pipeline.
UAE Project Seen as a Bright Spot
Choudhary struck a more positive note on the United Arab Emirates. Wynn Resorts is developing Wynn Al Marjan Island, a project estimated at $5.1 billion. Wynn Resorts holds a 40% stake.
He said the project benefits from a monopoly position and a market driven by luxury spending. However, he noted that regional travel flows and the ongoing tensions between the US and Iran could affect the outlook.
Wynn Resorts said last month that it expects some delay to the complex’s planned spring 2027 opening.
Looking at Asia more broadly, Choudhary said the region’s overall gaming sector had returned to pre-COVID levels by 2025. In Macau, casino companies are now focused on improving EBITDA margins.
VIP gaming in Macau has made a comeback and is outpacing the mass-market segment in terms of growth. The recovery across Asia, however, remains uneven, with some markets struggling while others gain momentum.
