TLDR
- S&P Global Ratings expects NagaCorp’s adjusted revenue to grow between 3% and 8% through 2027.
- The company keeps its B+/Stable rating from S&P, with vulnerable business risk and intermediate financial risk.
- NagaCorp holds a gaming monopoly in Phnom Penh until 2045, covering a 200-kilometre radius.
- Gross gaming revenue is expected to rise 27% in 2025, reaching $692 million.
- The $3.5 billion Naga 3 project may be rescaled, with spending set to resume in 2027.
S&P Global Ratings says NagaCorp Ltd is on track for adjusted revenue growth of 3% to 8% across 2026 and 2027. The Hong Kong-listed company runs casinos in Cambodia.
S&P kept its rating at ‘B+/Stable/–’. The agency described the company as vulnerable on business risk and intermediate on financial risk. It said the note was not a rating action.
Strengths and Risks Facing the Casino Operator
NagaCorp holds the only gaming license in Phnom Penh until 2045. That monopoly covers a 200-kilometre radius around the Cambodian capital.
The company also operates in a jurisdiction with low gaming taxes. S&P said this gives it an edge over rivals in other markets.
Still, the agency pointed to some risks. These include limited clarity on how the company will fund future projects and dividends.
NagaCorp also has narrow revenue and geographic diversity. It faces competition from gaming markets in Malaysia and Macau.
Gross gaming revenue is expected to grow 27% in 2025, reaching $692 million. Mass-market play drove much of that growth, with revenue in that segment rising 23% to $485 million.
Non-gaming revenue made up less than 5% of the total in 2025. S&P said this narrow mix adds to the company’s business risk in an emerging market.
Reported revenue and earnings in 2025 were still well below pre-pandemic levels. Revenue reached 41% of 2019 levels, while earnings reached 60%.
S&P linked the gap to the loss of the referral VIP segment, mostly junket operators. Junkets made up about 70% of gross gaming revenue in 2019 and are not expected to return.
China’s crackdown on junket activity reduced that segment’s contribution. S&P said this will keep weighing on the company’s business strength going forward.
Balance Sheet and Naga 3 Project
NagaCorp has limited dividends and spending since 2022. This has kept its debt low while building up cash reserves.
The company paid off a $70 million shareholder loan in May 2026. S&P forecasts debt to EBITDA near 0.3 times for both 2026 and 2027.
NagaCorp is reassessing the scale of its Naga 3 project. A shareholder funding agreement for the $3.5 billion development ended in December 2025.
S&P expects spending on Naga 3 to resume in 2027. Capital spending is estimated at $170 million in 2026, rising to about $380 million in 2027.
NagaCorp resumed dividends in 2025 with a 30% payout ratio. S&P expects that ratio to move gradually toward the company’s historical rate of 60%.
Annual shareholder returns are estimated between $100 million and $120 million. S&P said faster Naga 3 spending combined with heavy shareholder payouts could hurt the rating.
The agency also said NagaCorp lacks strong ties with global lenders. It added the company may struggle to handle a major shock without outside refinancing.
