TLDR
- Novig recorded more than $125 million in trading volume during its first week as a federally regulated prediction market.
- The company launched nationwide on August 4, weeks after getting approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
- Parlays made up about one third of the opening week volume, with baseball leading activity.
- Novig is suing five states, arguing federal law gives the CFTC sole authority over its contracts.
- A judge in New York already denied the company’s request to block state enforcement while the case continues.
Novig has entered the prediction market space with an opening week that outpaced several rivals in sports trading. The company reported more than $125 million in notional trading volume in its first seven days.
The platform launched nationwide on August 4. This came less than two months after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved Novig to operate as a designated contract market.
Chief executive Jacob Fortinsky told CNBC that the company’s best single day so far brought in $26.3 million in volume. That happened during the first week after the nationwide launch.
Parlays, which combine multiple bets into one wager, made up close to a third of the total volume. Baseball was the most traded sport during the launch window, according to people familiar with the company’s operations.
Novig says its opening week sports volume topped the launch totals of Kalshi, Polymarket US, Underdog and DraftKings’ DKeX. These figures come from the company’s own calculations.
Novig Enters a Growing Market
The prediction market sector now moves billions of dollars each week. Data from Dune Analytics shows roughly $3.46 billion in trading volume across tracked platforms during the week of August 3.
Kalshi led that week with $2.48 billion in volume. Polymarket followed with $482.9 million, and Polymarket US brought in $378.8 million.
The next week, starting August 10, total volume across these platforms rose to about $3.55 billion. Kalshi again led with $2.52 billion, while Polymarket and Polymarket US posted $545.7 million and $369.9 million.
Separate numbers from Ticker Tracker show smaller platforms also drawing traders. Rothera posted $157.3 million over a recent seven day span, Underdog brought in $78.4 million, PropvolhetX had $37.8 million, and DraftKings recorded $4.9 million. These reporting windows do not line up exactly with Novig’s first week.
Novig has said it plans to stick to sports contracts rather than expand into other categories. Fortinsky said the company’s focus stays on markets tied to sports and competition.
The company began in 2021 as a sports betting exchange under a Colorado license. It shifted to a sweepstakes based sportsbook model in 2024 before moving toward the CFTC regulated structure it uses today.
Novig requires users to be at least 21 years old. This is a stricter standard than the 18 and older rule that applies broadly to federally regulated prediction markets.
Last week, the company rolled out a set of trading safeguards. These include identity checks, deposit and loss limits, cooling off periods and tools that let users exclude themselves from trading.
Legal Challenges in Five States
Novig has also filed lawsuits against New York, Massachusetts, Washington, New Mexico and Wisconsin. The company argues that the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive authority over its contracts.
That argument, if it holds up in court, would mean state gambling laws cannot be used against the platform. Novig is asking judges in each state to confirm that position.
The company has already faced one setback. A federal judge in the Southern District of New York denied Novig’s request for a temporary restraining order that would have stopped the state from enforcing its gambling laws.
The legal fight is still in its early stages across all five states. If courts side with regulators, Novig could be forced to limit or pull its sports contracts in some markets.
That outcome would test whether the company can keep up the trading pace it set in its first week. For now, Novig continues to operate nationwide while the cases move through the courts.
