TLDR
- The UK Gambling Commission released updated data through February 2026 showing no steady growth in illegal gambling activity over 21 months
- VPN usage jumped roughly 40% after the Online Safety Act rolled out in July 2025, hiding more illegal gambling traffic
- The Commission’s previous 30% adjustment for VPN-hidden traffic may no longer be enough to capture the full picture
- Web traffic estimates carry error margins and miss activity through apps or direct connections, making volume measurement unreliable
- The regulator is seeking input from international regulators and licensed operators to improve its data and enforcement methods
The UK Gambling Commission said this week that rising VPN use is making it harder to track illegal online gambling activity. The regulator published an updated analysis on Tuesday covering data through February 2026.
The update followed a panel discussion on illegal gambling at the Commission’s Spring Evidence Conference in Birmingham in March. Representatives from the industry, the Dutch gambling regulator, and HMRC took part in the event.
Tim Livesley, head of the Commission’s Data Innovation Hub, published the findings in a blog post. The data covers a 21-month period and uses estimated minutes spent on illegal gambling sites as a measure of consumer engagement.
According to the Commission, the data does not show a steady or consistent rise in illegal gambling activity. A spike observed in autumn 2024 did not repeat in the same period of 2025.
The regulator said the pattern points to volatility rather than sustained growth. It also found no clear seasonal trends in the data.
VPN Growth After the Online Safety Act
The rollout of the Online Safety Act in July 2025 led to a jump in VPN use among UK consumers. Data from Ofcom and analytics firm Similarweb confirmed the increase.
Ofcom’s figures showed VPN usage rose sharply in July 2025 before settling at roughly 40% above previous levels. Similarweb data showed a similar pattern with a smaller initial spike.
The Commission had already applied a 30% uplift to its traffic estimates to account for VPN-hidden activity. However, the regulator now says a larger share of illegal gambling traffic may be going undetected.
This prompted the Commission to add two VPN usage scenarios to its analysis. The result is wider confidence intervals in the data from mid-2025 onward.
The growing use of VPNs was originally driven by consumers looking to avoid restrictions tied to the Online Safety Act. But the same tools are now shielding illegal gambling operators from detection.
Limits of Web Traffic Data
The Commission stressed that its figures come from web traffic estimates, which have built-in margins of error. These estimates do not capture all forms of access to illegal gambling sites.
Activity through apps or direct connections falls outside the dataset. That means the numbers are better at showing trends than measuring actual volumes.
The regulator said no single data source should be treated as definitive. It described illegal gambling as a complex problem requiring multiple data points.
The Commission is now building out additional data sources to work alongside traffic estimates. These include the Gambling Survey for Great Britain and the Consumer Voice research program.
Livesley said the Commission is also reaching out to licensed operators and international regulators. The goal is to verify existing data and find new datasets that could improve understanding of the illegal market.
Accurate measurement matters because it shapes how the regulator targets enforcement. Tools like payment blocking, domain takedowns, and partnerships with financial institutions depend on reliable data.
The Commission said it will continue publishing updates on its research and data work throughout the year. It also plans to share more details on expanded disruption and enforcement activity.
The November 2025 review had already acknowledged that no existing method could reliably estimate how much money players were spending with unlicensed operators. Three approaches were tested at the time, and none were considered fit for purpose.
Six months later, the methodology is still being refined. The Commission said it continues to treat illegal gambling as a priority enforcement area.
