TLDR
- Galaxy Research studied 2.9 million retail Polymarket accounts and found 69.2% finished below break-even.
- Retail accounts lost a combined $338.9 million, while automated accounts left out of the study made $246.8 million.
- Sports specialists had the worst win rate at 25.1%, compared with 41.2% for technology and science traders.
- Traders quit at a rate of 15.2% after a loss, compared with 6.1% after a win.
- The median retail account lost about $3.
Most retail traders on Polymarket are losing money, according to a new report from Galaxy Research. The study looked at 2.9 million accounts and found that 69.2% finished below break-even.
Together, those accounts lost $338.9 million. The report was published on October 1, 2026.
How Galaxy Research Studied Polymarket Traders
The study used on-chain data covering Polymarket’s full trading history. That history goes back to the platform’s launch in 2020.
Polymarket is an international prediction market. Users buy and sell shares tied to the outcome of real-world events, such as elections, sports, and technology milestones.
Because the platform runs on a blockchain, every trade leaves a public record. This made it possible to study millions of accounts at once.
Galaxy defined retail accounts as those trading at a human pace. This filter separated people placing trades by hand from automated systems that place orders much faster.
Automated accounts were left out of the retail sample. Those accounts made a combined $246.8 million in profits.
Small Typical Losses and Wide Gaps
For most traders, the losses were small. The median retail account lost about $3.
The middle 50% of accounts ranged from a loss of $36.64 to a gain of $0.40.
The results were wider at the extremes. The top 1% of losers lost as much as $4,804, while the top 1% of gainers made up to $3,381.
Position size also differed between groups. Profitable traders had a median position of $13.96, compared with $10 for traders who lost money.
Galaxy found that 44.1% of traders focused mostly on a single topic. These traders spread their bets across several markets within that topic.
Sports specialists had the lowest win rate in the study at 25.1%. Traders who focused on technology and science did better, with a win rate of 41.2%.
The report also tracked how traders behaved after a result came in. After a loss, 15.2% of traders stopped trading entirely.
After a win, only 6.1% left the platform. That means traders were about 2.5 times more likely to quit after losing than after winning.
The data includes trading from before Polymarket introduced taker fees in early 2026. As a result, the findings cover periods with different fee structures.
A taker fee is a charge on orders that match right away with existing orders, instead of waiting on the order book. Polymarket’s move to add these fees earlier this year is the latest change reflected in Galaxy’s data.
