TLDR
- Japan’s gambling laws block traditional money-based prediction markets, so firms are using points and rewards instead
- POYP lets users forecast political, sports, and cultural events to earn coins, with no penalty for wrong guesses
- IGS runs a similar service called Signals, while NERO YOSO is building prediction tools into the LINE messaging app
- Gumi Group is studying a compliant prediction market using AI and blockchain technology
- Polymarket has named a Japan representative and is targeting official approval by 2030
Prediction markets let people trade opinions on future events. Elections, sports outcomes, and celebrity news can all become things people bet on.
This model has spread quickly through crypto markets worldwide. In Japan, it faces a problem.
Japanese gambling law makes it hard to run platforms where users stake real money or crypto. So companies in Japan are trying something different.
How the Points System Works
Instead of letting people bet money, some firms are turning forecasting into a rewards program. Users guess outcomes and earn points or coins when they’re right.
POYP is one example of this approach. The company blends prediction markets with a point system. Users forecast results on politics, sports, and culture.
If they’re wrong, there’s no financial cost. They simply don’t earn points.
This setup avoids the legal definition of gambling. No money changes hands, so operators argue it functions more like an engagement app than a betting platform.
Other companies are testing similar models. IGS runs a service called Signals that works the same way.
NERO YOSO is taking a different route. The company is building prediction features directly into LINE, a messaging app used by millions of people across Japan every day.
Bigger Companies Are Watching
Interest isn’t limited to small startups anymore. Gumi Group, a gaming company, said in late 2025 it was studying a prediction market that uses artificial intelligence and blockchain technology.
Reports say Gumi is exploring ways to keep prediction activity and rewards separate. This separation matters under Japanese law.
Regulators look at how value moves through an entire system. They don’t just check whether a user sees a cash balance on screen.
Polymarket, a major global prediction platform, hasn’t given up on Japan either. The company appointed Mike Eidlin, who has ties to the Jupiter ecosystem, as its representative there.
Polymarket is reportedly aiming for official approval by 2030. That’s still a long-term goal, not something happening soon.
Warnings From Banks
The legal picture remains unclear. In June 2026, crypto exchange Bitbank warned its customers about using prediction platforms.
The exchange said involvement with these platforms could lead to account restrictions. It cited possible conflicts with Japan’s gambling laws.
This warning shows that Japanese financial institutions aren’t necessarily treating overseas prediction markets as harmless.
What’s developing in Japan looks different from typical betting exchanges. Companies are leaning on advertising, loyalty programs, and rewards instead of fees from people risking their own money.
Whether this model produces useful forecasts is uncertain. Traditional prediction markets work partly because people with money at stake tend to research more and think harder about their answers.
A points-based system might draw plenty of users. But getting them to care as much about being right is a different challenge.
For now, Japan is shaping its own version of prediction markets. It isn’t gambling, and it isn’t quite finance either.
