TLDR
- Kenya’s Gambling Regulatory Authority is considering a dedicated licence for prediction market operators in its 2026/27 licensing cycle.
- The regulator views prediction markets as gambling because users stake money on future outcomes.
- Kenya’s Gambling Control Act 2025 allows new licence types to be added without a new law.
- Crypto payments and cross-border platforms are among the issues under review.
- Liberia recently launched a prediction market licence with an $80,000 fee and $500,000 capital requirement.
Kenya’s gambling regulator is considering a new licence category built specifically for prediction market operators. If approved, Kenya could become one of the first African countries to take this step.
The Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) is looking at the licence as part of its 2026/27 licensing cycle. The details came from comments Peter Karimi made to Business Daily, as reported by Global Gaming Insider.
Several companies have already approached the regulator about the possible new category. However, the GRA has not yet published application requirements or a launch timeline.
Karimi said the regulator sees prediction markets as a form of gambling. He explained that participants are staking money on outcomes that have not happened yet.
Kenya Has a Legal Path Forward
The GRA does not need a brand new law to create the licence. Kenya’s Gambling Control Act 2025 already sets out licence categories for online bookmakers, lotteries, and casinos.
The same law allows new licence types to be added through future regulations. This gives the regulator a legal route to create a prediction market licence.
Current online gambling rules could also serve as a starting point. Operators must already meet requirements on payments, advertising, age verification, and giving regulators access to transaction data.
These rules may be adapted if prediction markets become a regulated product in Kenya.
The GRA has also said prediction markets bring challenges that traditional betting does not always raise. One concern is cross-border platforms that serve users in many countries from a single location.
Cryptocurrency is another issue under review. Some prediction market platforms use digital assets for deposits and withdrawals.
Karimi also spoke about the difficulty of controlling advertising in a connected world. “We have to prepare for the fact that marketing knows no bounds,” he said.
Liberia Sets an Example in Africa
Kenya is not the only African country looking at prediction markets. Other nations are also studying how these platforms should fit into their gambling laws.
Liberia offers the clearest example so far. The country recently created a dedicated framework for prediction markets as part of a wider gambling reform package.
Under Liberia’s rules, operators can only enter the market through a dedicated licence or a partnership approved by the National Lottery Authority. The licence costs $80,000, and operators must hold at least $500,000 in paid-up capital.
Liberia has also limited which contracts can be offered. Markets linked to the death of a named person, criminal activity, or Liberian elections are banned.
Kenya has not yet published its own licence conditions. In the meantime, operators such as 5050 Markets, EvenMarket, and Spreadhit continue to offer prediction market services in the country.
