TLDR
- CreditSights says Macau can still reach its MOP236 billion (US$29.2 billion) casino revenue target for 2026.
- Macau needs an average of MOP16.3 billion per month in the fourth quarter to hit the goal.
- Casino revenue for the first nine months reached MOP187.12 billion, up 3.2% from last year.
- September was the fourth straight month of year-on-year declines, but analysts call the drops cyclical, not structural.
- Visitor arrivals rose 16% in September, while gaming revenue per visitor fell 15%.
Macau could still meet its 2026 casino revenue target of MOP236 billion, or about US$29.2 billion, according to a new report from CreditSights.
Analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey published the report on Monday. They said recent monthly declines do not show a long-term drop in demand.
To hit the government’s forecast, Macau needs average gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP16.3 billion per month in the fourth quarter. The analysts said October’s results will give a clearer picture.
Macau Casino Revenue Ahead of Pace Through September
Macau earned about MOP187.12 billion in casino GGR in the first nine months of 2026. That was 3.2% higher than the same period last year and equal to 79% of the annual target.
Monthly revenue averaged about MOP20.8 billion over that time. The full-year forecast only requires a monthly average of MOP19.7 billion, so the city has been running ahead of the needed pace.
Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said earlier this month there are no plans to change the forecast. He also called October an important test of whether more visitors would lead to more gaming revenue.
September was the fourth month in a row of year-on-year GGR declines. CreditSights said this does not prove a structural change in the market.
The analysts said June and July should not count in that view because the FIFA World Cup drove results in those months. They described the roughly 1% drops in August and September as marginal.
Sands China Points to Solid Demand
CreditSights said strong visitor numbers during October’s Golden Week holiday could help monthly revenue. It also pointed to optimism from Sands China management about a stronger fourth quarter.
Sands China expects support from the holiday period and the NBA China Games held in Macau.
Patrick Dumont, chairman and CEO of parent company Las Vegas Sands, called the third quarter unusual, as high-end play was softer.
Sands China CEO and president Grant Chum Kwan Lock said underlying demand remains solid. He pointed to growth in patron numbers and visits to the company’s properties.
The report found differences between gaming segments. VIP GGR was nearly flat in the third quarter compared to a year earlier, while mass GGR fell 5.2%. Mass gaming made up 71.9% of the total.
Visitor arrivals in September rose about 16% from a year earlier. However, GGR per visitor fell 15% to MOP5,616.
This means more visitors did not lead to a matching rise in revenue. CreditSights noted that GGR per visitor is only a rough measure and does not track what each gambler actually spends.
CreditSights expects visitor numbers to remain the main driver of total GGR. The firm said a meaningful recovery in spending per person will still be difficult, with October’s figures now the next key data point.
