TLDR
- Polymarket is in talks with the CFTC to bring its main exchange back to the US after being banned since 2022
- The company’s current US beta only offers sports markets and has a long waitlist
- CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is effectively the sole decision-maker with four of five seats vacant
- A US Army soldier was recently charged with using classified intel to earn over $400,000 on Polymarket
- Rival Kalshi has reached a $22 billion valuation while operating under US regulation
Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, is pushing to bring its main exchange back to the United States. The company is in active discussions with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission about lifting restrictions that have kept American users off its core platform since 2022.
The talks were first reported by Bloomberg. They come after years of Polymarket operating offshore while building a massive global user base.
Polymarket was founded by Shayne Coplan in June 2020. The platform lets users buy shares on whether future events will happen, using blockchain technology built on the Polygon network.
The CFTC investigated Polymarket in late 2021. The agency found the platform had been operating as an unregistered facility for event-based binary options since launch. In January 2022, Polymarket was hit with a $1.4 million penalty and barred from accepting US customers.
Polymarket’s Limited US Presence
The company tried to re-enter the US market by paying $112 million in July 2025 to acquire QCEX, a CFTC-registered derivatives exchange. A beta version of Polymarket US launched at the end of 2025.
That beta product has been limited. It only offers sports markets and remains locked behind a waitlist with hundreds of thousands of users still waiting.
The platform’s most popular categories, including politics and macro-driven events, are not available on the US version. Polymarket has said it plans to expand into climate, crypto, and election markets but has not given a timeline.
Meanwhile, domestic rival Kalshi has operated under regulation from the start. Kalshi has partnered with Robinhood and Coinbase and reached a $22 billion valuation as of March.
Polymarket reportedly seeks a $15 billion valuation. By October 2025, the platform was processing over $3 billion in monthly trades globally.
Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, committed up to $2 billion in investment and valued Polymarket at $8 billion that same month.
CFTC Chairman Holds the Keys
Any change to Polymarket’s US status would require a formal commission vote. But with four of five CFTC seats currently empty, Chairman Michael Selig is effectively the sole decision-maker.
Selig has shown openness to the idea. On April 16, he told the House Agriculture Committee that the agency wants to bring offshore liquidity back to the US under proper regulation.
Options being discussed include merging the offshore platform’s blockchain technology with the domestic exchange or consolidating entirely onto the US-licensed platform. Either approach would require major structural changes.
Not everyone supports the plan. A group of House Democrats wrote to Selig last month calling for tougher enforcement against offshore prediction markets. They cited insider trading and national security concerns.
Those concerns were underlined last week. Federal authorities charged a US Army soldier with using classified military intelligence to earn more than $400,000 betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The soldier used a VPN to access the platform.
The case showed how easily US users can get around the ban. It also raised questions about oversight on the platform.
Polymarket has facilitated hundreds of millions in trades connected to conflicts in Ukraine, Israel, and Iran. Under US regulation, many of those contracts would face strict limitations. CFTC rules prohibit US-registered exchanges from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, or assassination.
The prediction market space has also drawn political attention. Donald Trump Jr. holds advisory roles with both Polymarket and Kalshi. Trump Media and Technology Group has indicated plans to launch a competing platform.
The CFTC continues to assert federal authority over prediction markets in court, while several states argue these products fall under gambling regulation.
