TLDR
- Brazil signed a measure on September 25, 2026, banning fixed-odds betting, including sports betting and online casino games.
- Industry groups IBJR and ABRAJOGO say the ban conflicts with the federal rules in place since January 2025.
- A study cited by IBJR estimates R$58 billion to R$73 billion in lost tax revenue from 2027 to 2030.
- IBJR puts the government’s possible liability for licenses alone at R$2.55 billion or more.
- ABRAJOGO says it will keep talking with officials and plans to take legal action in court.
Two gambling industry groups in Brazil have criticized the government’s decision to ban fixed-odds betting nationwide. The Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR) and ABRAJOGO say the move creates legal and regulatory risks.
The measure, known as PM 1394/2026, was signed on September 25, 2026. It bans the use, promotion, mediation and marketing of fixed-odds betting, including sports betting and online casino games.
Both groups say the ban conflicts with the regulatory system the federal government set up. They argue it creates uncertainty for companies that were authorized to operate in the country.
The betting sector has been federally authorized and supervised since January 2025. The IBJR called the ban a “rupture of the regulatory structure created by the Brazilian State itself.”
IBJR Warns of Illegal Market Growth and Tax Losses
The IBJR said the ban could push consumers toward illegal betting sites. It cited a study by LCA Consultoria based on data from Instituto Locomotiva.
According to the study, between 38% and 44% of online betting already takes place on illegal platforms. That share was estimated to rise to between 41% and 51%.
The study also estimates Brazil could lose between R$58 billion and R$73 billion in tax revenue from 2027 to 2030. The final figure depends on how much demand shifts to the black market.
The IBJR said players on unofficial sites would lose protections offered by licensed platforms. These include identity checks, transaction monitoring, self-exclusion and responsible gambling tools.
The group also warned of legal and financial risks for the government. It said operators spent money on infrastructure, staff, contracts and licensing fees to meet regulatory rules.
The IBJR estimated the government’s liability for licenses alone at R$2.55 billion or more. It said revenue from the sector also supports public security, education, social security, tourism and sports.
ABRAJOGO Cites Loss of Legal Certainty
ABRAJOGO said the ban undermines legal certainty for companies that planned their business around government rules. It said the change could affect staff, suppliers, partners, sponsors and other related businesses.
“This move compromises one of the essential pillars of any business environment: the confidence that decisions, authorizations, and commitments undertaken by the State will be respected,” the association said.
ABRAJOGO also said the measure could hurt investor trust in Brazil’s regulatory framework beyond the gaming sector.
Both groups say a ban will not end consumer demand for betting. They recommend stronger regulation, better responsible gambling policies and more action against illegal operators instead.
ABRAJOGO said it will keep talking with the government, Congress and the public. It also pledged to “take the necessary action in court to uphold” the law, the authorizations and legal certainty.
Attention is now on how the ban will affect consumers, public revenue and companies that invested under the previous rules.
