TLDR
- The CFTC fined former Rep. George Santos about $35,000 for manipulating a Kalshi prediction market on his State of the Union attendance.
- Santos must give up $17,569.98 in trading profits and pay a $17,500 penalty.
- He also agreed to a three-year ban from trading on CFTC-regulated markets.
- The CFTC said Santos made misleading public statements about his travel plans while trading both “Yes” and “No” contracts.
- Santos settled without admitting or denying wrongdoing and later criticized Kalshi, calling it a gambling platform.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has fined former Congressman George Santos roughly $35,000. The agency said he manipulated a Kalshi prediction market tied to whether he would attend the 2026 State of the Union address.
Under the settlement announced Friday, Santos will disgorge $17,569.98 in trading profits. He will also pay a $17,500 civil penalty.
Santos agreed to a three-year ban from trading on any CFTC-regulated market. He neither admitted nor denied the agency’s findings.
The case began after Kalshi flagged unusual trading activity in the market during February. That tip led to a CFTC investigation into Santos’s conduct.
How the Trading Scheme Worked
Between February 12 and February 25, Santos traded both “Yes” and “No” contracts on his own attendance. The CFTC said he made public statements on social media that did not match his actual travel situation.
By February 22, Santos held 30,874 “Yes” contracts. That same day, he posted a lighthearted question online about what suit to wear to the event.
The price of “Yes” contracts jumped from $0.15 to $0.70 within hours. Santos then sold his position for a profit of $3,448.43.
His flight to Washington was later canceled. He did not share that information publicly and instead booked a train.
He then posted that travel problems could keep lawmakers from attending, and the price dropped to $0.28. Later that day, he posted a video saying he would be in the gallery for the speech, and the price climbed back to $0.70.
Santos Shifted to Betting Against Himself
After telling the public he would attend, Santos began building a large “No” position. About an hour later, his train reservation was also canceled due to weather.
He did not disclose that cancellation. He continued posting that he planned to attend the event.
On the day of the speech, Santos posted that he was watching from an airport television. The price of “Yes” contracts collapsed after that post.
That drop allowed him to profit $14,390 from his “No” position. In total, the CFTC found he made $17,569.98 from the trading scheme.
At that point, both his flight and train tickets had already been canceled. He had not booked any other way to reach Washington.
The CFTC noted that Santos cooperated with the investigation. That cooperation helped resolve the case quickly.
After the settlement, Santos posted criticism of Kalshi online. He called the platform “a bona fide gambling website.”
He also praised a lawsuit filed by New York Attorney General Letitia James against Kalshi. Santos said all states should regulate the company as a gambling operator.
In a statement through his attorney, Santos said he never intended to manipulate the market. He said he had genuinely planned to attend but was blocked by weather that disrupted both his flight and train plans.
He chose to settle the case without admitting wrongdoing in order to close the matter quickly, the statement said. The CFTC’s order shows he did not disclose the cancellations while continuing to post that he would attend the event.
