TLDR
- Macau’s casino revenue fell 8.4% year-on-year in July, largely due to the FIFA World Cup 2026.
- Seaport Research Partners expects revenue to grow 4.5% year-on-year in August.
- The firm forecasts an 11% year-on-year increase in September.
- Analysts point to a stronger renminbi and easier visa policies as support for growth.
- Risks remain, including China’s economy and possible travel restrictions.
Macau’s casino industry is expected to bounce back in August and September after a weak July, according to Seaport Research Partners.
The brokerage says business slowed down last month mainly because of the FIFA World Cup 2026. Many gamblers stayed away from the casino floor during the tournament.
Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported casino revenue of MOP20.26 billion in July. That works out to about US$2.51 billion.
This total was 8.4% lower than the same month last year. It was still 9.4% higher than June.
July Revenue Hit By World Cup And Typhoon
Analysts said the football tournament reduced demand across the casino floor. The premium mass and VIP segments were hit the hardest.
Business improved after the World Cup ended on July 19. Seaport said the second half of the month showed stronger activity than the first.
Typhoon Noul also played a role. The storm passed north of Hong Kong during the weekend of July 25 and 26.
Even with the storm, Seaport said the market had already started recovering from the tournament’s effect before the month ended.
Growth Expected In The Coming Months
Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky said August revenue should rise 4.5% year-on-year. He expects customers who delayed their trips during the World Cup to return during this period.
September is expected to perform even better. Seaport forecasts an 11% year-on-year increase for that month.
The brokerage estimates August revenue at close to MOP23.16 billion. That would mean an average daily revenue of about MOP747 million.
Seaport also expects the third quarter to grow 1.8% year-on-year. It predicts the fourth quarter will grow 3.2% year-on-year.
The brokerage said deferred demand from the World Cup period should support results over the next two months.
Seaport pointed to easier liquidity conditions as another factor helping the market. It also mentioned visa policy changes that could support higher spending among visitors.
A stronger renminbi was also mentioned as a factor. Seaport said this currency strength has helped improve customer liquidity in recent weeks.
Seaport said its forecast depends on demand fully recovering once the World Cup effect wears off.
The brokerage also flagged some risks that could affect its outlook. These include the condition of China’s economy and any new restrictions on travel or money movement to Macau.
Weather remains another concern, since storms can disrupt visitor numbers during peak travel periods.
Seaport also noted that Macau’s overnight base mass segment is still below levels seen before the pandemic. It said a recovery in this group could add extra growth to revenue figures.
The brokerage’s outlook points to Macau returning to year-on-year growth in August, with a stronger result expected in September as the market continues adjusting after the World Cup disruption.
