TLDR
- Macau’s July casino revenue fell 8.4% year-on-year to $2.51 billion because of World Cup disruption.
- Seaport Research Partners expects August revenue to grow 4.5% year-on-year.
- September revenue could rise 11% year-on-year, according to Seaport.
- Typhoon Noul also added pressure on demand in late July.
- Seaport flagged risks including China’s economy and possible travel restrictions to Macau.
Macau’s casino industry had a weak July. Analysts at Seaport Research Partners now expect that to change soon.
The firm believes business will pick up in August and grow even faster in September. It says the slowdown was tied to the FIFA World Cup, which pulled attention and spending away from the gaming floor.
Macau brought in MOP20.26 billion, or about $2.51 billion, in gross gaming revenue in July. That number was 8.4% lower than the same month last year.
Still, it was 9.4% higher than June. Analysts say the tournament hurt demand the most in the premium-mass and VIP segments.
Business began to improve in the second half of July. That was after the World Cup ended on July 19.
Weather And Demand
Typhoon Noul also played a role. The storm passed north of Hong Kong during the weekend of July 25 and 26.
Even with that added pressure, Seaport said the market was already showing signs of recovery from the World Cup slowdown. Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky expects August revenue to rise 4.5% year-on-year.
He forecasts a bigger jump of 11% in September. Seaport estimates August revenue at close to MOP23.16 billion.
That would mean an average daily revenue of about MOP747 million. The firm also expects third quarter revenue to rise 1.8% year-on-year.
Fourth quarter revenue is forecast to grow 3.2%. Seaport says the return of delayed demand from World Cup viewers should help support the next two months.
Liquidity And Policy Support
Seaport also pointed to easier liquidity conditions and visa policies. It said these could keep supporting higher end gaming demand going forward.
A stronger renminbi was also mentioned as a factor. The firm said this has helped improve customer liquidity in recent weeks.
Together, these conditions could support Macau’s premium gaming segments through the rest of the year. That is based on the idea that the World Cup effect will fully clear.
Seaport still warned that risks remain. These include the state of China’s economy and possible new restrictions on money flow or travel to Macau.
Bad weather could also affect results again. The firm also noted that Macau’s overnight base mass segment is still below pre pandemic levels.
Any improvement in that segment could add more upside to future revenue growth. For now, Seaport expects Macau to return to year-on-year growth in August.
It expects an even stronger result in September, as the market keeps adjusting after the disruption caused by the World Cup.
