TLDR
- The UK Gambling Commission found 91% of people with repeated payments to illegal gambling sites also bet with licensed operators.
- Spending on licensed sites did not drop much after a person’s first illegal payment.
- People using unlicensed sites had far higher problem gambling scores than licensed site customers.
- The study used open banking data and excluded cryptocurrency payments, so it cannot measure the full size of the illegal market.
- Online gaming duty has been 40% since April 2026, and general betting duty is set to rise again in April 2027.
The UK Gambling Commission has released new data on people who bet with illegal gambling sites. The report, published on 28 October 2026, found that most of these bettors also use licensed operators.
Among people who made repeated payments to illegal sites, 91% also gambled with licensed companies. Their spending on licensed sites did not drop much after their first illegal payment.
The regulator tracked spending using open banking payment data. This is the Commission’s first study of the black market to use this method rather than relying on surveys alone.
What the Payment Data Shows
The Commission said the pattern is consistent with illegal gambling being added on top of licensed play. It does not fit neatly with the idea of players leaving the regulated market altogether.
The study also looked at gambling harm. People paying unlicensed operators had far higher problem gambling scores than customers of licensed sites.
A payment firm’s tool sorted the transactions. Any payment with more than a 50% chance of being gambling was counted as gambling.
The study has clear limits. Only accounts that support open banking were included, so cryptocurrency payments were left out. The method also picks up payments to only some illegal operators.
The panel is not nationally representative, the Commission said. The data cannot measure the size of the illegal market, and it does not show that illegal sites cause the harm.
Separate research from the Commission, released on 20 October 2026, looked at how people find illegal sites. It named searches for sites “not on GamStop” as a main route into the illegal market.
That survey covered 4,007 people who had gambled online in the previous four weeks. Fieldwork took place between 1 and 15 May 2026.
Tax Debate Over the Illegal Market
The report came out during Budget week. Online gaming duty in the UK has been 40% since April 2026.
The Betting and Gaming Council has linked higher taxes to the black market. Chief executive Grainne Hurst said higher taxes on the regulated sector will make the illegal market more attractive.
The illegal market pays no UK tax and offers no licensed safeguards. Citing projections, the Betting and Gaming Council warned that a 25% rate could put almost 9,000 jobs at risk.
The group also said almost 1,000 betting shops and casinos could close or face serious risk of closure under that rate.
Both sides of the debate can use the new data. Operators can point to the higher harm among illegal site users, while campaigners can point to the 91% figure as a sign players are not simply leaving.
Neither side can claim the report settles the question. General betting duty is scheduled to rise to a higher rate in April 2027.
