TLDR
- 44% of Americans think betting on election outcomes should be illegal, vs. 30% who say it should be legal
- Sports prediction markets have majority support at 53%, while political markets face strong opposition
- War and terrorism contracts face the most resistance, with 57–64% saying they should be illegal
- Nearly $700 million has already traded on 2028 presidential election markets across Kalshi and Polymarket
- Over 25 prediction market bills have been introduced in the U.S. this year, with Minnesota passing the first state ban
Most Americans Oppose Election Betting, Even as Industry Eyes Political Markets for Growth
Prediction market companies are pushing hard into political contracts. But a new poll shows a large chunk of the American public isn’t on board.
A POLITICO/Public First survey found that 44% of Americans think betting on election outcomes should be illegal. Only 30% said it should be legal.
That gap grows wider for other sensitive topics. Fifty-seven percent said betting on war outcomes should be illegal. Sixty-four percent opposed markets tied to acts of terrorism.
Sports markets are a different story. Around 53% of Americans said sports-related prediction contracts should be legal, with only 23% opposed.
Weather contracts and award show markets also drew more support than opposition, with roughly 46% saying they should be allowed.
Political Markets Are Still a Big Target for the Industry
Despite public skepticism, prediction market companies see politics as one of their biggest growth areas.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts called political, election, and public policy contracts the industry’s “greatest opportunity.” They estimated these markets could make up 27% of trading volume by 2030, up from about 10% in early 2025.
That would translate to roughly $266 billion in annual trading volume.
The numbers already show strong demand. Nearly $700 million has traded on 2028 presidential election markets across Kalshi and Polymarket’s international platform.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election generated over $3.6 billion in volume on Polymarket alone, making it the most traded prediction market event ever.
Lawmakers Are Moving to Restrict the Market
Public opinion appears to line up with growing political concern at both the state and federal level.
More than 25 prediction market bills have been introduced in the U.S. Congress this year. Some would ban election and sports contracts entirely. Others target insider trading and participation by elected officials.
The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act would prohibit contracts on sports and elections. The Stop Trading on Predictions and Corrupt Bets Act would go further, banning markets tied to elections, government actions, and military conflicts.
Minnesota became the first state to pass a broad prediction market ban earlier this year. The state banned contracts tied to sports, elections, weather, and award shows. Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC have since filed legal challenges to the law.
Tennessee took a narrower approach, creating criminal penalties for insider trading and market manipulation in prediction markets.
The survey found that overall public opinion on prediction markets is split. About 29% said their growing popularity is a negative development. Only 19% viewed it positively.
More than half of respondents said they would not place a bet on a prediction market at all.
