TLDR
- 44% of Americans think betting on election outcomes should be illegal, vs. 30% who say it should be legal
- Sports prediction markets have the most public support at 53%
- War and terrorism contracts face the strongest opposition, with 64% against terrorism betting
- Nearly $700 million has already traded on 2028 presidential election markets on Kalshi and Polymarket
- Over 25 prediction market bills have been introduced in the U.S. this year at the federal level
Most Americans are uncomfortable with political prediction markets, even as the industry sees them as a major growth opportunity, a new poll finds.
A POLITICO/Public First survey found that 44% of Americans believe betting on election outcomes should be illegal. Only 30% said it should be legal.
Sports contracts are a different story. Around 53% of respondents said sports-related prediction markets should be legal, making them the most accepted category in the poll.
Weather and award show contracts also polled well, with about 46% supporting weather-related markets. Public opinion drops sharply once politics enters the picture.
Markets tied to presidential pardons drew nearly the same opposition as election markets. Forty-three percent said those should be illegal, and only 25% said they should be legal.
War and terrorism contracts faced the strongest resistance of all. Fifty-seven percent opposed betting on war outcomes. Sixty-four percent said terrorism-related markets should be illegal.
Overall, about 29% of Americans said the growing popularity of prediction markets is a bad thing. Only 19% viewed it positively. More than half said they would not place a wager in a prediction market at all.
Industry Sees Big Money in Political Markets
Despite public skepticism, the industry is pushing hard into political markets. Nearly $700 million has already traded on 2028 presidential election contracts across Kalshi and Polymarket.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election generated more than $3.6 billion in trading volume on Polymarket’s international platform, making it the most traded prediction market event ever.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts called politics, elections, and public policy contracts the industry’s “greatest opportunity.” They estimated political markets could make up 27% of total trading volume by 2030, up from around 10% in early 2025.
Analysts projected those markets could generate roughly $266 billion in annual trading volume by 2030.
Legislative Pushback Mounts
Lawmakers are paying attention. More than 25 prediction market bills have been introduced at the federal level this year alone.
The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act would ban contracts tied to sports and elections. The Stop Trading on Predictions and Corrupt Bets Act would prohibit contracts linked to elections, government actions, military conflicts, and sporting events.
Other bills would bar members of Congress, judges, and campaign insiders from participating in prediction markets entirely.
At the state level, Minnesota became the first state to ban prediction markets outright earlier this year. Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC have all filed legal challenges against the law.
Tennessee took a different approach, creating criminal penalties for insider trading and market manipulation in prediction markets.
The poll suggests public concern aligns with what lawmakers are hearing. Sports markets have public support. Political markets do not.
